It’s the nearing the end of winter (we hope), and most of us
in North America are sick of the cold, I know I certainly am, and I love
winter! Taken in this context, a warmer climate doesn’t sound that bad. Maybe
you or some one you know has even questioned how “global warming” (as it is
called in the popular literature) can be real if we are having such a cold, hard
core winter. Actually, global warming is a misnomer. The warming part refers to
the increase in mean or average global surface temperatures, but that is just
an average. We can average both 0 plus 10, and 4 plus 6 and get 5 each time. The
range between 0 and 10 is much greater than the range between 4 and 6 yet both
data pairs tell us the same story when averaged together. Averages are
necessary when looking at climate, because climate is a global phenomenon, the
result of a global system. The Earth has warmed approximately 0.7 degrees C (or
1.25 degrees F) in the past 100 years. But don’t let the average warming lull
you into the dream of the end of winter, while its likely that winters may be
getting milder, more heat in the climate system ultimately means more
instability, and more chaos in weather patterns. This instability can mean
things like what happened this winter, with the polar vortex wandering south,
are also likely.
At least if you are questioning the veracity of climate
change this winter, you are doing so based on evidence, the evidence being its
cold! How can this be a sign of global warming? I applaud you for looking
around and actually observing what is happening in the world around you, and
making connections to things you have heard are supposed to be happening. The
problem is, climate isn’t quite that simple and as a result, we shouldn’t
really be calling it global warming. The phenomenon is global in scale, and
most of us operate on a human sized scale of observation. So where you are at
any give moment (or many many moments this winter), may seem colder than usual,
that doesn’t mean that on average, Earth isn’t warming up, it is.
The hardest conversations to have are those with people who
don’t “believe” in climate change. Not believing in climate change is sort of
like not believing in gravity. Its not believing in how science explains things
in the world. Not believing in how science works is always a choice, but people
need to understand the implications of that choice. Science seeks to explain
natural phenomena through observing, collecting evidence, testing and
establishing attribution or cause and effect.
Sometimes science misses the truth because it isn’t asking
the right questions, or asking enough questions. That isn’t the case this time
around. There are so many scientists working so hard on this issue, from so
many different angles; we’re not missing any big picture components. There is
so much evidence that has been documented, about how the climate system works,
what makes is shift, how it shifts, how fast it shifts. There is a lot we don’t
know in this exciting field of inquiry, but the big picture mechanisms of the
climate system are well established.
So do me a favor, and when you want to have a conversation
about climate change, don’t start it with anything having to do with belief.
While there are philosophical discussions to be had about any topic, including
climate change, whether or not it is happening and whether or not it is being
caused by our carbon dioxide emissions is a question for science. If you want
to deny climate change, you need to do so based on evidence, and good luck with
that, because the evidence is pretty overwhelming! And by evidence I don’t mean
what the talking heads on CNN or NPR or Fox News or some nutty lady on
community radio says. Get as close as you can to the source, the people doing
the investigating. They are the ones in the trenches, looking at this day in
and day out. And I’ll tell you, they are pretty alarmed with what they are learning.
We’ll look more at the climate system and what scientists
are finding so alarming in the coming weeks.
References:
Andy Borowitz’s great post on Climate change and the winter
that wouldn’t quit being so hardcore: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/01/polar-vortex-causes-hundreds-of-injuries-as-people-making-snide-remarks-about-climate-change-are-pun.html
There is SO MUCH information out there on the web about
climate change, but some of the nicest and most concise is from NASA’s Earth
Observatory: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page1.php
